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Observations on the Chernobyl Disaster and LNT

机译:切尔诺贝利灾难和LNT的观测

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摘要

The Chernobyl accident was probably the worst possible catastrophe of a nuclear power station. It was the only such catastrophe since the advent of nuclear power 55 years ago. It resulted in a total meltdown of the reactor core, a vast emission of radionuclides, and early deaths of only 31 persons. Its enormous political, economic, social and psychological impact was mainly due to deeply rooted fear of radiation induced by the linear non-threshold hypothesis (LNT) assumption. It was a historic event that provided invaluable lessons for nuclear industry and risk philosophy. One of them is demonstration that counted per electricity units produced, early Chernobyl fatalities amounted to 0.86 death/GWe-year), and they were 47 times lower than from hydroelectric stations (∼40 deaths/GWe-year). The accident demonstrated that using the LNT assumption as a basis for protection measures and radiation dose limitations was counterproductive, and lead to sufferings and pauperization of millions of inhabitants of contaminated areas. The projections of thousands of late cancer deaths based on LNT, are in conflict with observations that in comparison with general population of Russia, a 15% to 30% deficit of solid cancer mortality was found among the Russian emergency workers, and a 5% deficit solid cancer incidence among the population of most contaminated areas.
机译:切尔诺贝利事故可能是核电站可能发生的最严重的灾难。这是自55年前核电问世以来唯一的此类灾难。结果导致反应堆堆芯完全融化,放射性核素大量散发,仅31人死亡。其巨大的政治,经济,社会和心理影响主要是由于对线性非阈值假设(LNT)假设所引发的对辐射的根深蒂固的恐惧。这是一个历史性事件,为核工业和风险哲学提供了宝贵的经验教训。其中之一就是证明,按生产的每度电计算,切尔诺贝利早期死亡人数为0.86人死亡/ GWe年,比水电站低47倍(约40人死亡/ GWe年)。事故表明,将LNT假设作为保护措施和限制辐射剂量的依据会适得其反,并导致数百万受污染地区居民的痛苦和贫困化。基于LNT的数千例晚期癌症死亡的预测与以下观察结果相矛盾:与俄罗斯总人口相比,俄罗斯急救人员中固体癌症死亡率下降了15%至30%,而赤字率为5%大多数受污染地区人口中的实体癌发病率。

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  • 作者

    Jaworowski, Zbigniew;

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  • 年度 2010
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